AMC 10 Step by Step

Topics / Counting & Probability

Basic Probability

Sample-space probability: dice, coins, cards, random selection

56
primary-topic problems (4.3% of all)
25
more as a secondary topic
Where it appears
10
P1-10
14
P11-15
16
P16-20
16
P21-25

## What you need to know
- Equally likely outcomes: P(E)=favorable outcomestotal outcomesP(E) = \dfrac{\text{favorable outcomes}}{\text{total outcomes}}, valid only when the outcomes counted are genuinely equally likely (ordered dice pairs, not sums).
- Complement: P(E)=1P(not E)P(E) = 1 - P(\text{not } E), essential for "at least one" questions.
- Independence: P(AB)=P(A)P(B)P(A \cap B) = P(A)\,P(B) for separate coins, dice, or draws with replacement; without replacement, multiply the updated probabilities in sequence.
- Standard sample sizes: two dice 3636, nn coins 2n2^n, kk of nn objects (nk)\binom{n}{k}.
- By symmetry, in draws without replacement the jj-th draw has the same distribution as the first: "the third card is an ace" has probability 452\frac{4}{52}.

## How AMC 10 tests it
- Problems 4–12: dice, coins, spinners, marbles from a bag, with a small sample space to count directly.
- Problems 10–18: the probability that a random arrangement or subset has a property, so the real work is the counting underneath.
- Problems 12–20: "at least one" or "two the same" questions designed for the complement.
- Problems 18–25: random integers from {1,,n}\{1, \dots, n\} with a number-theoretic condition (product even, relatively prime), needing casework on residues.
- Choices are fractions in lowest terms built to catch off-by-one counts.

## Standard approaches
1. Name the sample space explicitly and confirm its outcomes are equally likely; then count favorable outcomes.
2. If the event says "at least" or "not all the same," compute the complement.
3. Multiply along a sequence of draws, shrinking counts as objects leave; or use binomials if order is irrelevant.
4. Use symmetry: "first ball red" and "last ball red" have equal probability.
5. Casework on the first object or the largest value when the condition depends on it.

## Worked example
A bag contains 44 red, 33 blue, and 22 green marbles. Three marbles are drawn at random without replacement. What is the probability that the three marbles are not all of different colors?

(A) 27\frac{2}{7} (B) 37\frac{3}{7} (C) 47\frac{4}{7} (D) 57\frac{5}{7} (E) 67\frac{6}{7}

Solution. There are (93)=84\binom{9}{3} = 84 equally likely unordered draws. All three colors different means one marble of each color: 432=244 \cdot 3 \cdot 2 = 24 draws. So the probability of all different colors is 2484=27\frac{24}{84} = \frac{2}{7}, and the requested probability is 127=571 - \frac{2}{7} = \frac{5}{7}. Answer (D) 57\boxed{\textbf{(D)}\ \frac{5}{7}}.

## Pitfalls
- Treating unequal outcomes as equally likely, such as dice sums 22 through 1212.
- Forgetting to shrink the sample space after each draw without replacement.
- Mixing an ordered numerator with an unordered denominator; pick one convention and keep it.
- Answering the complement of what was asked; reread the last sentence before choosing.

Traps that recur

  • Forgetting that rerolling all three dice (15/216) beats keeping a 4 or 5, or failing to count ordered outcomes when listing the favorable rolls. (2020 AMC 10A #25)
  • Forgetting to multiply the 3 completions by the 3 · 2 choices for the first two moves (giving 3/2187 = 1/729, choice (B)), or using 3^8 as the total. (2006 AMC 10A #25)
  • Adding up only the straight-up path 0 to 1 to 2 to 3 to 4, giving (1/2)(1/4)^3 = 1/128 and a guess at the smallest choice (A); the backtracking paths are exactly what turn 128 into 97. (2025 AMC 10B #24)
  • Only forbidding immediate backtracking (probability 125/216) without requiring the path to stay in a unit cube, i.e. that a repeated axis be traversed back the other way. (2024 AMC 10A #24)

Problems, easiest first

2023 AMC 10A · #7Basic Probability

Janet rolls a standard 66 -sided die 44 times and keeps a running total of the numbers she rolls. What is the probability that at some point, her running total will equal 3?3?

2022 AMC 10B · #12Basic Probability

A pair of fair 66 -sided dice is rolled nn times. What is the least value of nn such that the probability that the sum of the numbers face up on a roll equals 77 at least once is greater than 12\frac{1}{2} ?

2021 AMC Fall 10A · #9Basic Probability

When a certain unfair die is rolled, an even number is 33 times as likely to appear as an odd number. The die is rolled twice. What is the probability that the sum of the numbers rolled is even?

2018 AMC 10B · #6Basic Probability

A box contains 55 chips, numbered 1,2,3,4,1, 2, 3, 4, and 55 . Chips are drawn randomly one at a time without replacement until the sum of the values drawn exceeds 44 . What is the probability that 33 draws are required?

2018 AMC 10B · #9Basic Probability

The faces of each of 77 standard dice are labeled with the integers from 11 to 66 . Let pp be the probability that when all 77 dice are rolled, the sum of the numbers on the top faces is 1010 . What other sum occurs with the same probability pp ?

2017 AMC 10B · #9Basic Probability

A radio program has a quiz consisting of 33 multiple-choice questions, each with 33 choices. A contestant wins if he or she gets 22 or more of the questions right. The contestant answers randomly to each question. What is the probability of winning?

2016 AMC 10B · #12Basic Probability

Two different numbers are selected at random from (1,2,3,4,5)( 1, 2, 3, 4, 5) and multiplied together. What is the probability that the product is even?

2016 AMC 10A · #12Basic Probability

Three distinct integers are selected at random between 11 and 20162016 , inclusive. Which of the following is a correct statement about the probability pp that the product of the three integers is odd?

2013 AMC 10B · #12Basic Probability

Let SS be the set of sides and diagonals of a regular pentagon. A pair of elements of SS are selected at random without replacement. What is the probability that the two chosen segments have the same length?

2012 AMC 10A · #9Basic Probability

A pair of six-sided dice are labeled so that one die has only even numbers (two each of 22 , 44 , and 66 ), and the other die has only odd numbers (two each of 11 , 33 , and 55 ). The pair of dice is rolled. What is the probability that the sum of the numbers on the tops of the two dice is 77 ?

2011 AMC 10A · #14Basic Probability

A pair of standard 6-sided fair dice is rolled once. The sum of the numbers rolled determines the diameter of a circle. What is the probability that the numerical value of the area of the circle is less than the numerical value of the circle's circumference?

2005 AMC 10B · #12Basic Probability

Twelve fair dice are rolled. What is the probability that the product of the numbers on the top faces is prime?

2005 AMC 10B · #15Basic Probability

An envelope contains eight bills: 22 ones, 22 fives, 22 tens, and 22 twenties. Two bills are drawn at random without replacement. What is the probability that their sum is 20$ or more?

2005 AMC 10A · #9Basic Probability

Three tiles are marked XX and two other tiles are marked OO . The five tiles are randomly arranged in a row. What is the probability that the arrangement reads XOXOXXOXOX ?

2005 AMC 10B · #9Basic Probability

One fair die has faces 1,1,2,2,3,31, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3 and another has faces 4,4,5,5,6,6.4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6. The dice are rolled and the numbers on the top faces are added. What is the probability that the sum will be odd?

2004 AMC 10A · #5Basic Probability

A set of three points is randomly chosen from the grid shown. Each three point set has the same probability of being chosen. What is the probability that the points lie on the same straight line?

2004 AMC 10A · #10Basic Probability

Coin AA is flipped three times and coin BB is flipped four times. What is the probability that the number of heads obtained from flipping the two fair coins is the same?

2025 AMC 10A · #14Basic Probability

Six chairs are arranged around a round table. Two students and two teachers randomly select four of the chairs to sit in. What is the probability that the two students will sit in two adjacent chairs and the two teachers will also sit in two adjacent chairs?

2025 AMC 10B · #11Basic Probability

On Monday, 66 students went to the tutoring center at the same time, and each one was randomly assigned to one of the 66 tutors on duty. On Tuesday, the same 66 students showed up, the same 66 tutors were on duty, and the students were again randomly assigned to the tutors. What is the probability that exactly 22

2025 AMC 10B · #14Basic Probability

Nine athletes, no two of whom are the same height, try out for the basketball team. One at a time, they draw a wristband at random, without replacement, from a bag containing 33 blue bands, 33 red bands, and 33 green bands. They are divided into a blue group, a red group, and a green group. The tallest member of …

2024 AMC 10A · #17Basic Probability

Two teams are in a best-two-out-of-three playoff: the teams will play at most 33 games, and the winner of the playoff is the first team to win 22 games. The first game is played on Team A's home field, and the remaining games are played on Team B's home field. Team A has a 23\frac{2}{3} chance of winning at home, and …

2021 AMC 10B · #18Basic Probability

A fair 66 -sided die is repeatedly rolled until an odd number appears. What is the probability that every even number appears at least once before the first occurrence of an odd number?

2021 AMC Fall 10B · #14Basic Probability

Una rolls 66 standard 66 -sided dice simultaneously and calculates the product of the 66{ } numbers obtained. What is the probability that the product is divisible by 4?4?

2021 AMC Fall 10A · #13Basic Probability

Each of 66 balls is randomly and independently painted either black or white with equal probability. What is the probability that every ball is different in color from more than half of the other 55 balls?

2020 AMC 10B · #11Basic Probability

Ms. Carr asks her students to read any 55 of the 1010 books on a reading list. Harold randomly selects 55 books from this list, and Betty does the same. What is the probability that there are exactly 22 books that they both select?

2019 AMC 10B · #17Basic Probability

A red ball and a green ball are randomly and independently tossed into bins numbered with positive integers so that for each ball, the probability that it is tossed into bin kk is 2k2^{-k} for k=1,2,3,.k=1,2,3,\ldots. What is the probability that the red ball is tossed into a higher-numbered bin than the green ball?

2015 AMC 10B · #16Basic Probability

Al, Bill, and Cal will each randomly be assigned a whole number from 11 to 1010 , inclusive, with no two of them getting the same number. What is the probability that Al's number will be a whole number multiple of Bill's and Bill's number will be a whole number multiple of Cal's?

2014 AMC 10A · #17Basic Probability

Three fair six-sided dice are rolled. What is the probability that the values shown on two of the dice sum to the value shown on the remaining die?

2014 AMC 10B · #16Basic Probability

Four fair six-sided dice are rolled. What is the probability that at least three of the four dice show the same value?

2008 AMC 10B · #20Basic Probability

The faces of a cubical die are marked with the numbers 11 , 22 , 22 , 33 , 33 , and 44 . The faces of another die are marked with the numbers 11 , 33 , 44 , 55 , 66 , and 88 . Both dice are thrown. What is the probability that the sum of the top two numbers will be 55 , 77 , or 99 ?

2008 AMC 10B · #16Basic Probability

Two fair coins are to be tossed once. For each head that results, one fair die is to be rolled. What is the probability that the sum of the die rolls is odd? (Note that if no die is rolled, the sum is 00 .)

2008 AMC 10B · #17Basic Probability

A poll shows that 70%70\% of all voters approve of the mayor's work. On three separate occasions a pollster selects a voter at random. What is the probability that on exactly one of these three occasions the voter approves of the mayor's work?

2007 AMC 10B · #19Basic Probability

The wheel shown is spun twice, and the randomly determined numbers opposite the pointer are recorded. The first number is divided by 4,4, and the second number is divided by 5.5. The first remainder designates a column, and the second remainder designates a row on the checkerboard shown. What is the probability that …

2007 AMC 10A · #16Basic Probability

Integers a,b,c,a, b, c, and dd , not necessarily distinct, are chosen independently and at random from 0 to 2007, inclusive. What is the probability that adbcad-bc is even?

2006 AMC 10B · #21Basic Probability

For a particular peculiar pair of dice, the probabilities of rolling 11 , 22 , 33 , 44 , 55 , and 66 , on each die are in the ratio 1:2:3:4:5:61:2:3:4:5:6 . What is the probability of rolling a total of 77 on the two dice?

2006 AMC 10B · #17Basic Probability

Bob and Alice each have a bag that contains one ball of each of the colors blue, green, orange, red, and violet. Alice randomly selects one ball from her bag and puts it into Bob's bag. Bob then randomly selects one ball from his bag and puts it into Alice's bag. What is the probability that after this process the …

2004 AMC 10B · #11Basic Probability

Two eight-sided dice each have faces numbered 11 through 88 . When the dice are rolled, each face has an equal probability of appearing on the top. What is the probability that the product of the two top numbers is greater than their sum?

2025 AMC 10B · #24Basic Probability

A frog hops along the number line according to the following rules. \qquad\bullet It starts at 00 . \qquad\bullet If it is at 00 , then it moves to 11 with probability 12\tfrac{1}{2} and it disappears with probability 12\tfrac{1}{2} . \qquad\bullet For n=1,2,n = 1, 2, or 3,3, if it is at n,n, then it moves to …

2024 AMC 10A · #24Basic Probability

A bee is moving in three-dimensional space. A fair six-sided die with faces labeled A+,A,B+,B,C+,A^+, A^-, B^+, B^-, C^+, and CC^- is rolled. Suppose the bee occupies the point (a,b,c).(a,b,c). If the die shows A+A^+ , then the bee moves to the point (a+1,b,c)(a+1,b,c) and if the die shows A,A^-, then the bee moves to the point (a1,b,c).(a-1,b,c).

2023 AMC 10A · #25Basic Probability

If AA and BB are vertices of a polyhedron, define the distance d(A,B)d(A, B) to be the minimum number of edges of the polyhedron one must traverse in order to connect AA and BB . For example, AB\overline{AB} is an edge of the polyhedron, then d(A,B)=1d(A, B) = 1 , but if AC\overline{AC} and CB\overline{CB} are edges and …

2021 AMC Fall 10B · #23Basic Probability

Each of the 55{ } sides and the 55{ } diagonals of a regular pentagon are randomly and independently colored red or blue with equal probability. What is the probability that there will be a triangle whose vertices are among the vertices of the pentagon such that all of its sides have the same color?

2019 AMC 10A · #20Basic Probability

The numbers 1,2,,91,2,\dots,9 are randomly placed into the 99 squares of a 3×33 \times 3 grid. Each square gets one number, and each of the numbers is used once. What is the probability that the sum of the numbers in each row and each column is odd?

2016 AMC 10A · #17Basic Probability

Let NN be a positive multiple of 55 . One red ball and NN green balls are arranged in a line in random order. Let P(N)P(N) be the probability that at least 35\tfrac{3}{5} of the green balls are on the same side of the red ball. Observe that P(5)=1P(5)=1 and that P(N)P(N) approaches 45\tfrac{4}{5} as NN grows large. What is …

2012 AMC 10A · #20Basic Probability

A 3×33 \times 3 square is partitioned into 99 unit squares. Each unit square is painted either white or black with each color being equally likely, chosen independently and at random. The square is then rotated 9090\,^{\circ} clockwise about its center, and every white square in a position formerly occupied by a black …

2010 AMC 10A · #18Basic Probability

Bernardo randomly picks 3 distinct numbers from the set {1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9}\{1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9\} and arranges them in descending order to form a 3-digit number. Silvia randomly picks 3 distinct numbers from the set {1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8}\{1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8\} and also arranges them in descending order to form a 3-digit number. What is the probability that …

2009 AMC 10A · #22Basic Probability

Two cubical dice each have removable numbers 11 through 66 . The twelve numbers on the two dice are removed, put into a bag, then drawn one at a time and randomly reattached to the faces of the cubes, one number to each face. The dice are then rolled and the numbers on the two top faces are added. What is the …

2009 AMC 10A · #24Basic Probability

Three distinct vertices of a cube are chosen at random. What is the probability that the plane determined by these three vertices contains points inside the cube?

2009 AMC 10B · #25Basic Probability

Each face of a cube is given a single narrow stripe painted from the center of one edge to the center of the opposite edge. The choice of the edge pairing is made at random and independently for each face. What is the probability that there is a continuous stripe encircling the cube?

2008 AMC 10A · #22Basic Probability

Jacob uses the following procedure to write down a sequence of numbers. First he chooses the first term to be 6. To generate each succeeding term, he flips a fair coin. If it comes up heads, he doubles the previous term and subtracts 1. If it comes up tails, he takes half of the previous term and subtracts 1. What is …

2008 AMC 10B · #22Basic Probability

Three red beads, two white beads, and one blue bead are placed in line in random order. What is the probability that no two neighboring beads are the same color?

2005 AMC 10B · #21Basic Probability

Forty slips are placed into a hat, each bearing a number 11 , 22 , 33 , 44 , 55 , 66 , 77 , 88 , 99 , or 1010 , with each number entered on four slips. Four slips are drawn from the hat at random and without replacement. Let pp be the probability that all four slips bear the same number. Let qq be the …

2004 AMC 10B · #23Basic Probability

Each face of a cube is painted either red or blue, each with probability 1/2. The color of each face is determined independently. What is the probability that the painted cube can be placed on a horizontal surface so that the four vertical faces are all the same color?

2002 AMC 10A · #24Basic Probability

Tina randomly selects two distinct numbers from the set {1,2,3,4,5}\{ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 \} , and Sergio randomly selects a number from the set {1,2,...,10}\{ 1, 2, ..., 10 \} . What is the probability that Sergio's number is larger than the sum of the two numbers chosen by Tina?

2001 AMC 10 · #23Basic Probability

A box contains exactly five chips, three red and two white. Chips are randomly removed one at a time without replacement until all the red chips are drawn or all the white chips are drawn. What is the probability that the last chip drawn is white?

2020 AMC 10A · #25Basic Probability

Jason rolls three fair standard six-sided dice. Then he looks at the rolls and chooses a subset of the dice (possibly empty, possibly all three dice) to reroll. After rerolling, he wins if and only if the sum of the numbers face up on the three dice is exactly 7.7. Jason always plays to optimize his chances of winning. …

2006 AMC 10A · #25Basic Probability

A bug starts at one vertex of a cube and moves along the edges of the cube according to the following rule. At each vertex the bug will choose to travel along one of the three edges emanating from that vertex. Each edge has equal probability of being chosen, and all choices are independent. What is the probability that …