2022 AMC 10B Problem 12
A pair of fair -sided dice is rolled times. What is the least value of such that the probability that the sum of the numbers face up on a roll equals at least once is greater than ?
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Key insight
Work out the chance of never rolling a 7. That is 5/6 multiplied by itself once per roll; find the first number of rolls where it drops below 1/2.
Solution
"At least once" is hard to count directly: it could be on the first roll, the third, or several. The opposite, "never", is easy. So work with "never".
- One roll. Two dice give equally likely results. The ones that sum to are , , , , , : six of them. So the chance of a is , and the chance of no is .
- Several rolls. The rolls do not affect each other, so the chance of no in rolls is multiplied by itself times, .
- What we need. The chance of at least one is . For this to be more than , the chance of "never" must be less than .
- Try values of .
| chance of no 7 | less than ? | |
|---|---|---|
| no () | ||
| no () | ||
| yes () |
To compare a fraction with , compare its top with half its bottom.
5. The first that works is .
The answer is .
Why this works
For "at least once" questions, find the chance that it never happens and subtract from . When the tries do not affect each other, "never" is one fraction multiplied by itself, so the question becomes a short table. Adding the chances () is wrong because it counts rolls with two sevens twice; with enough rolls it would even pass .
Concise solution
A shorter write-up, the way contest solutions are usually written. It may take a different route from the solution above.
On a single roll of two dice there are outcomes, and six of them () sum to . So the probability of a is , and of no is .
The rolls are independent, so the probability of never seeing a in rolls is . We need
Compute: ; ; .
The first power below is .
The answer is .
Review in the AoPS books
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 7: Introduction to Probability
- Introduction to Algebra, Chapter 1: Follow the Rules (§1.6, §1.7, §1.8)
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 2: Basic Counting Techniques (§2.3)
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 8: Basic Probability Techniques
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Problem © Mathematical Association of America (MAA), American Mathematics Competitions. Reproduced for non-commercial educational use. Solution and commentary are original to this site.