AMC 10 Step by Step

2022 AMC 10B Problem 12

P11-15~3 minPrint

A pair of fair 66 -sided dice is rolled nn times. What is the least value of nn such that the probability that the sum of the numbers face up on a roll equals 77 at least once is greater than 12\frac{1}{2} ?

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Key insight

Work out the chance of never rolling a 7. That is 5/6 multiplied by itself once per roll; find the first number of rolls where it drops below 1/2.

Solution

"At least once" is hard to count directly: it could be on the first roll, the third, or several. The opposite, "never", is easy. So work with "never".

  1. One roll. Two dice give 6×6=366 \times 6 = 36 equally likely results. The ones that sum to 77 are 1+61{+}6, 2+52{+}5, 3+43{+}4, 4+34{+}3, 5+25{+}2, 6+16{+}1: six of them. So the chance of a 77 is 636=16\frac{6}{36} = \frac16, and the chance of no 77 is 56\frac56.
  2. Several rolls. The rolls do not affect each other, so the chance of no 77 in nn rolls is 56\frac56 multiplied by itself nn times, (56)n\left(\frac56\right)^n.
  3. What we need. The chance of at least one 77 is 1−(56)n1 - \left(\frac56\right)^n. For this to be more than 12\frac12, the chance of "never" must be less than 12\frac12.
  4. Try values of nn.
nnchance of no 7less than 12\frac12?
222536\frac{25}{36}no (25>1825 > 18)
33125216\frac{125}{216}no (125>108125 > 108)
446251296\frac{625}{1296}yes (625<648625 < 648)

To compare a fraction with 12\frac12, compare its top with half its bottom.
5. The first nn that works is 44.

The answer is (C) 4\boxed{\textbf{(C)}\ 4}.

Why this works

For "at least once" questions, find the chance that it never happens and subtract from 11. When the tries do not affect each other, "never" is one fraction multiplied by itself, so the question becomes a short table. Adding the chances (16+16+⋯\frac16 + \frac16 + \cdots) is wrong because it counts rolls with two sevens twice; with enough rolls it would even pass 11.

Concise solution

A shorter write-up, the way contest solutions are usually written. It may take a different route from the solution above.

On a single roll of two dice there are 3636 outcomes, and six of them (1+6,2+5,3+4,4+3,5+2,6+11{+}6, 2{+}5, 3{+}4, 4{+}3, 5{+}2, 6{+}1) sum to 77. So the probability of a 77 is 16\frac16, and of no 77 is 56\frac56.

The rolls are independent, so the probability of never seeing a 77 in nn rolls is (56)n\left(\frac56\right)^n. We need
1−(56)n>12⟺(56)n<12.1 - \left(\tfrac56\right)^n > \tfrac12 \quad\Longleftrightarrow\quad \left(\tfrac56\right)^n < \tfrac12.

Compute: (56)2=2536≈0.69\left(\frac56\right)^2 = \frac{25}{36} \approx 0.69; (56)3=125216≈0.58\left(\frac56\right)^3 = \frac{125}{216} \approx 0.58; (56)4=6251296≈0.48\left(\frac56\right)^4 = \frac{625}{1296} \approx 0.48.

The first power below 12\frac12 is n=4n = 4.

The answer is (C) 4\boxed{\textbf{(C)}\ 4}.

Review in the AoPS books

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Problem © Mathematical Association of America (MAA), American Mathematics Competitions. Reproduced for non-commercial educational use. Solution and commentary are original to this site.