AMC 10 Step by Step

2005 AMC 10B Problem 21

P21-25~4 minPrint

Forty slips are placed into a hat, each bearing a number 11 , 22 , 33 , 44 , 55 , 66 , 77 , 88 , 99 , or 1010 , with each number entered on four slips. Four slips are drawn from the hat at random and without replacement. Let pp be the probability that all four slips bear the same number. Let qq be the probability that two of the slips bear a number aa and the other two bear a number b≠ab \neq a . What is the value of q/pq/p ?

Log in to save your progress.
Show solution without answering

Key insight

Both probabilities have the same bottom, so q/p is just the count of two-pair draws (1620) divided by the count of four-of-a-kind draws (10).

Solution

Both pp and qq are "good draws divided by all possible draws." The bottom is the same for both, so it cancels in q/pq/p. We only need to count the good draws for each.

Count draws as groups of 44 slips, where order does not matter.

1. Good draws for pp (all four slips the same). Pick the number: 1010 ways. There are exactly 44 slips with that number, and we take all of them: 11 way. Total: 1010.
2. Good draws for qq (two of aa, two of bb).
- Pick the two numbers. Picking 33 and 77 is the same as picking 77 and 33, so there are 10⋅92=45\frac{10 \cdot 9}{2} = 45 ways.
- For the first number, pick 22 of its 44 slips. With slips W, X, Y, Z the options are WX, WY, WZ, XY, XZ, YZ: 66 ways.
- Same for the second number: 66 ways.
- Total: 45⋅6⋅6=162045 \cdot 6 \cdot 6 = 1620.
3. Ratio.
qp=162010=162.\frac{q}{p} = \frac{1620}{10} = 162.

The answer is (A) 162\boxed{\textbf{(A)}\ 162}.

Why this works

When you compare two probabilities from the same experiment, the "all possible outcomes" part is the same, so you never need to compute it. Just count the good outcomes for each. The recipe "choose which numbers, then choose which slips of each number" works for any card-hand style count; the key detail is that the two numbers form an unordered pair.

Alternative approach

You can also count draws in order (first slip, second slip, and so on), as long as you do it for both pp and qq. Four of a kind: 1010 numbers, and the 44 slips can come out in 4⋅3⋅2⋅1=244 \cdot 3 \cdot 2 \cdot 1 = 24 orders, giving 240240. Two pairs: 4545 choices of numbers, 66 choices of which two positions (of the four draws) get the number aa, and 4⋅34 \cdot 3 orders of slips for each number, giving 45⋅6⋅12⋅12=3888045 \cdot 6 \cdot 12 \cdot 12 = 38880. The ratio 38880/240=16238880 / 240 = 162 again.

Concise solution

A shorter write-up, the way contest solutions are usually written. It may take a different route from the solution above.

Treat a draw as an unordered set of 44 slips out of 4040; every such set is equally likely, and there are (404)\binom{40}{4} of them. Since pp and qq share this denominator, q/pq/p equals the ratio of the numbers of favorable sets.

Four of a kind. Pick the number (1010 ways); all four of its slips are then taken. Favorable sets: 1010.

Two pairs. Pick the two distinct numbers as an unordered pair: (102)=45\binom{10}{2} = 45 ways. For each chosen number, pick which 22 of its 44 slips are drawn: (42)=6\binom{4}{2} = 6 ways each. Favorable sets: 45⋅6⋅6=162045 \cdot 6 \cdot 6 = 1620.

Therefore
qp=162010=162.\frac{q}{p} = \frac{1620}{10} = 162.

The answer is (A) 162\boxed{\textbf{(A)}\ 162}.

Review in the AoPS books

Similar problems

Problem © Mathematical Association of America (MAA), American Mathematics Competitions. Reproduced for non-commercial educational use. Solution and commentary are original to this site.