AMC 10 Step by Step

2022 AMC 10B Problem 23

P21-25~6 minPrint

Ant Amelia starts on the number line at 00 and crawls in the following manner. For n=1,2,3,n=1,2,3, Amelia chooses a time duration tnt_n and an increment xnx_n independently and uniformly at random from the interval (0,1).(0,1). During the nn th step of the process, Amelia moves xnx_n units in the positive direction, using up tnt_n minutes. If the total elapsed time has exceeded 11 minute during the nn th step, she stops at the end of that step; otherwise, she continues with the next step, taking at most 33 steps in all. What is the probability that Amelia’s position when she stops will be greater than 11 ?

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Key insight

The times only decide whether she takes 2 or 3 steps, each with chance 1/2. Then find the chance that the step lengths add to more than 1.

Solution

The times and the step lengths are chosen separately, so split the problem: first find how many steps she takes, then where she ends up.

1. She never stops after one step. Each tnt_n is less than 11, so after one step less than 11 minute has passed.
2. Two steps or three? She stops after step 2 exactly when t1+t2>1t_1 + t_2 > 1. Picture (t1,t2)(t_1, t_2) as a random point in a 11-by-11 square. The line t1+t2=1t_1 + t_2 = 1 cuts the square into two equal triangles, so the chance is 12\frac12. Otherwise (chance 12\frac12) she takes step 3, and then she always stops, since at most 33 steps are allowed.
3. After two steps. Her position is x1+x2x_1 + x_2. By the same square picture, the chance that x1+x2>1x_1 + x_2 > 1 is 12\frac12.
4. After three steps. Her position is x1+x2+x3x_1 + x_2 + x_3, a random point in a 11-by-11-by-11 cube. The points where the sum is at most 11 form a corner pyramid with corners (0,0,0)(0,0,0), (1,0,0)(1,0,0), (0,1,0)(0,1,0), (0,0,1)(0,0,1). Its volume is 13×base×height=13×12×1=16\frac13 \times \text{base} \times \text{height} = \frac13 \times \frac12 \times 1 = \frac16. So the chance that the sum is more than 11 is 1−16=561 - \frac16 = \frac56.
5. Combine. Because the lengths do not depend on the times,
12×12+12×56=14+512=312+512=812=23.\frac12 \times \frac12 + \frac12 \times \frac56 = \frac14 + \frac{5}{12} = \frac{3}{12} + \frac{5}{12} = \frac{8}{12} = \frac23.

The answer is (C) 23\boxed{\textbf{(C)}\ \frac{2}{3}}.

Why this works

The story looks tangled, but the times only decide how many step lengths get added, and the lengths are chosen independently of the times. So the problem splits into a "how many steps" chance and two standard picture problems: half of a square, and a cube with its corner pyramid removed. When random choices are independent, sort out the simpler one first and treat each outcome as its own case.

Concise solution

A shorter write-up, the way contest solutions are usually written. It may take a different route from the solution above.

First determine how many steps she takes. Since t1<1t_1 < 1, she never stops after one step. She stops after the second step exactly when t1+t2>1t_1 + t_2 > 1; in the unit square of (t1,t2)(t_1, t_2) this is the half above the line t1+t2=1t_1 + t_2 = 1, probability 12\frac12. Otherwise she takes the third step (and then stops regardless), also with probability 12\frac12.

The increments xnx_n are independent of the times, so condition on the number of steps.

  • Two steps: her position is x1+x2x_1 + x_2, and P(x1+x2>1)=12P(x_1 + x_2 > 1) = \frac12 by the same half-square argument.
  • Three steps: her position is x1+x2+x3x_1 + x_2 + x_3. The complement x1+x2+x3≤1x_1 + x_2 + x_3 \le 1 is the tetrahedron cut from the unit cube by the plane x+y+z=1x + y + z = 1, of volume 13⋅12⋅1=16\frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac12 \cdot 1 = \frac16. So P(sum>1)=56P(\text{sum} > 1) = \frac56.

Combine:
P=12⋅12+12⋅56=14+512=812=23.P = \frac12 \cdot \frac12 + \frac12 \cdot \frac56 = \frac14 + \frac{5}{12} = \frac{8}{12} = \frac23.

The answer is (C) 23\boxed{\textbf{(C)}\ \frac{2}{3}}.

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Problem © Mathematical Association of America (MAA), American Mathematics Competitions. Reproduced for non-commercial educational use. Solution and commentary are original to this site.