Ant Amelia starts on the number line at and crawls in the following manner. For Amelia chooses a time duration and an increment independently and uniformly at random from the interval During the th step of the process, Amelia moves units in the positive direction, using up minutes. If the total elapsed time has exceeded minute during the th step, she stops at the end of that step; otherwise, she continues with the next step, taking at most steps in all. What is the probability that Amelia’s position when she stops will be greater than ?
- A)
- B)
- C)
- D)
- E)
Answer
C
Key insight
She always takes two steps and stops there iff t₁ + t₂ > 1 (probability 1/2); positions are independent of times, so P = ½·½ + ½·⅚.
Solution
First determine how many steps she takes. Since , she never stops after one step. She stops after the second step exactly when ; in the unit square of this is the half above the line , probability . Otherwise she takes the third step (and then stops regardless), also with probability .
The increments are independent of the times, so condition on the number of steps.
- Two steps: her position is , and by the same half-square argument.
- Three steps: her position is . The complement is the tetrahedron cut from the unit cube by the plane , of volume . So .
Combine:
The answer is .
Why this works
The process looks tangled, but the times only decide how many increments get added, and the increments are independent of the times. That splits the problem into a stopping-rule probability and two standard geometric probabilities (area of half a square, volume of a corner tetrahedron). Whenever random quantities are independent, condition on the simpler one and the rest becomes routine.
The trap
Thinking the third step is skipped or truncated when time runs out (it is completed), or coupling the step lengths to the times.
Common mistakes
- Thinking the third step is skipped or truncated when time runs out (it is completed), or coupling the step lengths to the times.
- Using or instead of ; the region is a tetrahedron of volume , not half the cube.
Techniques
Split into exhaustive cases and handle each · Count the complement and subtract from the total