2015 AMC 10B Problem 18
Johann has fair coins. He flips all the coins. Any coin that lands on tails is tossed again. Coins that land on tails on the second toss are tossed a third time. What is the expected number of coins that are now heads?
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Key insight
A coin ends tails only after three tails in a row, chance 1/8. So each coin ends heads with chance 7/8, and 64 times 7/8 = 56.
Solution
Think about one coin at a time.
1. When does a coin end up tails? Only if it shows tails on the first toss, tails again on the second toss, and tails again on the third toss. Any heads along the way stops the tossing with heads showing.
2. Chance of that. Each toss is tails with probability , so three tails in a row has probability
3. Chance of heads. Every other outcome ends in heads, so one coin ends heads with probability .
4. All 64 coins. The expected number of heads is the number of coins times the chance for each one:
The answer is .
Why this works
The expected number of coins with some property is just the number of coins times the chance that one coin has it. Also, the chance of heads is easier to get from the opposite event: "never heads in three tries" is the single outcome tails, tails, tails. Any time something is retried a fixed number of times, find the chance that every try fails and subtract it from .
Alternative approach
Follow the coins round by round, using the expected halves. On the first toss about of the land heads and land tails. The tails are tossed again: about turn to heads. The still tails are tossed a third time: about turn to heads. In total .
Concise solution
A shorter write-up, the way contest solutions are usually written. It may take a different route from the solution above.
Look at one coin. It finishes as heads unless it shows tails on the first toss, tails again on the second, and tails again on the third. Those three tosses are independent, so
The expected number of heads is the sum over the coins of the probability that each is heads (the coins need not be independent for this to hold, though they are):
The answer is .
Review in the AoPS books
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 11: Expected Value
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 7: Introduction to Probability
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 2: Basic Counting Techniques (§2.3)
- Intermediate Counting & Probability, Chapter 6: Constructive Expectation
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