AMC 10 Step by Step

2015 AMC 10B Problem 18

P16-20~2 minPrint

Johann has 6464 fair coins. He flips all the coins. Any coin that lands on tails is tossed again. Coins that land on tails on the second toss are tossed a third time. What is the expected number of coins that are now heads?

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Key insight

A coin ends tails only after three tails in a row, chance 1/8. So each coin ends heads with chance 7/8, and 64 times 7/8 = 56.

Solution

Think about one coin at a time.

1. When does a coin end up tails? Only if it shows tails on the first toss, tails again on the second toss, and tails again on the third toss. Any heads along the way stops the tossing with heads showing.
2. Chance of that. Each toss is tails with probability 12\frac12, so three tails in a row has probability
12⋅12⋅12=18.\frac12 \cdot \frac12 \cdot \frac12 = \frac18.
3. Chance of heads. Every other outcome ends in heads, so one coin ends heads with probability 1−18=781 - \frac18 = \frac78.
4. All 64 coins. The expected number of heads is the number of coins times the chance for each one:
64⋅78=56.64 \cdot \frac78 = 56.

The answer is (D) 56\boxed{\textbf{(D)}\ 56}.

Why this works

The expected number of coins with some property is just the number of coins times the chance that one coin has it. Also, the chance of heads is easier to get from the opposite event: "never heads in three tries" is the single outcome tails, tails, tails. Any time something is retried a fixed number of times, find the chance that every try fails and subtract it from 11.

Alternative approach

Follow the coins round by round, using the expected halves. On the first toss about 3232 of the 6464 land heads and 3232 land tails. The 3232 tails are tossed again: about 1616 turn to heads. The 1616 still tails are tossed a third time: about 88 turn to heads. In total 32+16+8=5632 + 16 + 8 = 56.

Concise solution

A shorter write-up, the way contest solutions are usually written. It may take a different route from the solution above.

Look at one coin. It finishes as heads unless it shows tails on the first toss, tails again on the second, and tails again on the third. Those three tosses are independent, so
P(ends tails)=12⋅12⋅12=18,P(ends heads)=1−18=78.P(\text{ends tails}) = \frac12 \cdot \frac12 \cdot \frac12 = \frac18, \qquad P(\text{ends heads}) = 1 - \frac18 = \frac78.

The expected number of heads is the sum over the 6464 coins of the probability that each is heads (the coins need not be independent for this to hold, though they are):
64⋅78=56.64 \cdot \frac78 = 56.

The answer is (D) 56\boxed{\textbf{(D)}\ 56}.

Review in the AoPS books

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Problem © Mathematical Association of America (MAA), American Mathematics Competitions. Reproduced for non-commercial educational use. Solution and commentary are original to this site.