Forty slips are placed into a hat, each bearing a number , , , , , , , , , or , with each number entered on four slips. Four slips are drawn from the hat at random and without replacement. Let be the probability that all four slips bear the same number. Let be the probability that two of the slips bear a number and the other two bear a number . What is the value of ?
- A)
- B)
- C)
- D)
- E)
Answer
A
Key insight
Both probabilities share the denominator C(40,4), so q/p is just a ratio of favorable counts: 45 pairs of numbers times 6 times 6, over 10.
Solution
Treat a draw as an unordered set of slips out of ; every such set is equally likely, and there are of them. Since and share this denominator, equals the ratio of the numbers of favorable sets.
Four of a kind. Pick the number ( ways); all four of its slips are then taken. Favorable sets: .
Two pairs. Pick the two distinct numbers as an unordered pair: ways. For each chosen number, pick which of its slips are drawn: ways each. Favorable sets: .
Therefore
The answer is .
Why this works
When two probabilities are defined on the same experiment, their ratio never needs the total; only the favorable counts matter. Counting unordered hands keeps the bookkeeping minimal, and the structure "choose the values, then choose the slips for each value" is the standard template for poker-style counts.
Alternative approach
Ordered draws work too: has favorable sequences and has , and the ratio is again . Mixing ordered and unordered counts between and is the main hazard.
The trap
Counting the two numbers a and b as an ordered pair (10 times 9 = 90 instead of 45), which doubles the answer to 324.
Common mistakes
- Counting the two numbers a and b as an ordered pair (10 times 9 = 90 instead of 45), which doubles the answer to 324.
- Forgetting the choices of slips for one of the two numbers, giving or similar.
Techniques
Set up the equation/formula and compute; no special trick needed