2017 AMC 10A Problem 15
Chloé chooses a real number uniformly at random from the interval . Independently, Laurent chooses a real number uniformly at random from the interval . What is the probability that Laurent's number is greater than Chloé's number?
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Key insight
Half the time Laurent picks above 2017 and wins for sure. The other half, both pick from the same range, so he wins half of those.
Solution
Only the sizes of the ranges matter, so shrink the numbers: Chloé picks from to and Laurent picks from to . Laurent's range is still twice as long, so the probability is the same.
Split on where Laurent's number lands.
1. Laurent lands between and . This happens half the time, because it is half of his range. Chloé's number is at most , so Laurent wins every time.
2. Laurent lands between and . This happens the other half of the time. Now both numbers come from the same range, to , picked the same way. Neither player has an advantage, so each wins half the time. (An exact tie has probability .)
3. Combine the two halves:
The answer is .
Why this works
When two numbers are picked at random from ranges, split the problem into pieces where the answer is easy: one piece where the result is certain and one piece where the two players are in the same position, so each wins half. This "split, then use fairness" idea works well for many probability questions.
Alternative approach
Draw a picture. Put Chloé's number across ( to ) and Laurent's number up ( to ). Every pair of choices is a point in a by rectangle, with area , and each point is equally likely. Laurent loses when his number is at most Chloé's, which is the triangle under the line from to . That triangle has area . So Laurent wins with probability
Concise solution
A shorter write-up, the way contest solutions are usually written. It may take a different route from the solution above.
Scale the intervals to for Chloé and for Laurent; the probability is unchanged.
Split on Laurent's number .
With probability , . Then is at least , which is at least Chloé's number, so Laurent wins for sure.
With probability , . Now both numbers are independent and uniform on the same interval, so by symmetry each is larger with probability (a tie has probability ).
Combining:
The answer is .
Review in the AoPS books
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 10: Geometric Probability
- Introduction to Algebra, Chapter 22: Special Manipulations (§22.3)
- Introduction to Geometry, Chapter 4: Perimeter and Area (§4.2, §4.3)
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 3: Correcting for Overcounting (§3.4)
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Problem © Mathematical Association of America (MAA), American Mathematics Competitions. Reproduced for non-commercial educational use. Solution and commentary are original to this site.