Ms. Carr asks her students to read any of the books on a reading list. Harold randomly selects books from this list, and Betty does the same. What is the probability that there are exactly books that they both select?
- A)
- B)
- C)
- D)
- E)
Answer
D
Key insight
Whatever five books Harold picks, Betty must take 2 of his 5 books and 3 of the other 5. Count her ways and divide by all her possible choices.
Solution
1. It does not matter which books Harold picks; every set of five looks the same from Betty's point of view. So imagine Harold's five books are already chosen. The list is now split into "Harold's " and "the other ".
2. All of Betty's choices. She picks books from :
3. Good choices. Exactly books in common means Betty takes of Harold's books and her other from the books he did not pick:
- of Harold's : ways,
- of the other : ways.
Together: good choices.
4. Probability.
The answer is .
Why this works
When two people choose at random and on their own, you can fix the first person's choice and count only the second person's options, since every first choice gives the same answer. Then "exactly in common" becomes a simple product: pick some from one group and the rest from the other.
The trap
Trying to count Harold's and Betty's choices together, or forgetting to count Betty's choices from the books Harold did not pick.
Concise solution
Whatever Harold picks, the list splits into his books and the other . Betty's selection is a uniformly random -subset, possibilities in all.
For exactly books in common, Betty must take of Harold's and of the remaining :
The probability is .
The answer is .
Review in the AoPS books
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 7: Introduction to Probability
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 1: Counting Is Arithmetic
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 8: Basic Probability Techniques
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 2: Basic Counting Techniques
Techniques
Set up the equation/formula and compute; no special trick needed