Ms. Carr asks her students to read any of the books on a reading list. Harold randomly selects books from this list, and Betty does the same. What is the probability that there are exactly books that they both select?
- A)
- B)
- C)
- D)
- E)
Answer
D
Key insight
Fix Harold's five books; Betty must choose 2 of those 5 and 3 of the other 5 out of C(10,5) equally likely selections.
Solution
Whatever Harold picks, the list splits into his books and the other . Betty's selection is a uniformly random -subset, possibilities in all.
For exactly books in common, Betty must take of Harold's and of the remaining :
The probability is .
The answer is .
Why this works
When two people choose independently and uniformly, condition on the first choice: by symmetry the answer does not depend on which set Harold picked, so treat his set as fixed and count only Betty's options. The count is then a standard "choose some from group A and the rest from group B" product, a hypergeometric setup.
The trap
Trying to count both selections simultaneously, or forgetting the C(5,3) factor for the books Betty picks outside Harold's set.
Common mistakes
- Trying to count both selections simultaneously, or forgetting the C(5,3) factor for the books Betty picks outside Harold's set.
- Using for the shared books, or not reducing and failing to match a choice.
Techniques
Set up the equation/formula and compute; no special trick needed