Real numbers between 0 and 1, inclusive, are chosen in the following manner. A fair coin is flipped. If it lands heads, then it is flipped again and the chosen number is 0 if the second flip is heads and 1 if the second flip is tails. On the other hand, if the first coin flip is tails, then the number is chosen uniformly at random from the closed interval . Two random numbers and are chosen independently in this manner. What is the probability that ?
- A)
- B)
- C)
- D)
- E)
Answer
B
Key insight
Each number is 0 (chance 1/4), 1 (chance 1/4) or a random point in between (chance 1/2). Split into cases by type and add: 1/8 + 1/4 + 1/16.
Solution
Step 1: what kind of number can come out?
- First flip heads (), second heads (): the number is . Chance .
- First flip heads, second tails: the number is . Chance .
- First flip tails: the number is a random point anywhere from to . Chance . Call this "spread out".
Step 2: split into cases by what kind and are. For each case, multiply (chance of the case) by (chance that in that case).
Case A: both are or . Chance .
In this case the pairs are equally likely. The distance is more than only for and : out of , so .
Contribution: .
Case B: one is or , the other is spread out. Chance (either or can be the spread-out one).
If the fixed one is , the spread-out one must be above : chance . If the fixed one is , the spread-out one must be below : chance . Either way, .
Contribution: .
Case C: both are spread out. Chance .
Picture across and up in a by square. The points with fill two corner triangles: one below the line and one above the line . Each is a right triangle with legs and , area . Together: of the square.
Contribution: .
Step 3: add the cases.
The answer is .
Why this works
When a number can come out in different ways, split into cases by which way it came out. Each case is then simple: either a small list of equally likely outcomes, or an area in a square. Multiplying each case's chance by the chance of success inside it, and adding, keeps everything counted exactly once. Check that the case chances add to : .
The trap
Treating the 0 and 1 outcomes as having chance 1/2 each after a heads, but forgetting to multiply by the 1/2 chance of that first heads.
Concise solution
Each chosen number is one of three types: it equals with probability , equals with probability , or is uniform on with probability . Condition on the types of and .
Both discrete (probability ). Then exactly when one is and the other is , which happens with probability (the four equally likely pairs , two of which work). Contribution: .
One discrete, one uniform (probability ). If the discrete value is , the uniform one must exceed ; if it is , the uniform one must be below . Either way the chance is . Contribution: .
Both uniform (probability ). In the unit square, the region consists of two right triangles with legs , total area . Contribution: .
Total: .
The answer is .
Review in the AoPS books
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 8: Basic Probability Techniques (§8.5)
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 10: Geometric Probability
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 2: Basic Counting Techniques (§2.2)
- Intermediate Counting & Probability, Chapter 11: Conditional Probability
Techniques
Split into exhaustive cases and handle each