Two fair coins are to be tossed once. For each head that results, one fair die is to be rolled. What is the probability that the sum of the die rolls is odd? (Note that if no die is rolled, the sum is .)
- A)
- B)
- C)
- D)
- E)
Answer
A
Key insight
With at least one die the sum is odd half the time; no dice (probability 1/4) gives the even sum 0, so the answer is 3/4 times 1/2.
Solution
Split by the number of heads.
- Zero heads (probability ): no die is rolled, the sum is , which is even. Contributes .
- One head (probability ): one die, odd with probability . Contributes .
- Two heads (probability ): two dice. The sum is odd exactly when the dice have different parities, which happens with probability (whatever the first die shows, the second matches its parity half the time). Contributes .
Total:
The answer is .
Why this works
A two-stage experiment is handled by conditioning on the first stage and weighting each case by its probability. The useful fact is that a sum of any positive number of fair dice is odd exactly half the time (the last die decides the parity), so the only case that behaves differently is the degenerate one with no dice. The answer is simply .
The trap
Treating the no-dice case as a coin flip too and answering 1/2, or forgetting that a sum of 0 counts as even.
Common mistakes
- Treating the no-dice case as a coin flip too and answering 1/2, or forgetting that a sum of 0 counts as even.
- Weighting the three cases equally ( each) instead of .
Techniques
Split into exhaustive cases and handle each