For a particular peculiar pair of dice, the probabilities of rolling , , , , , and , on each die are in the ratio . What is the probability of rolling a total of on the two dice?
- A)
- B)
- C)
- D)
- E)
Answer
C
Key insight
Face k has probability k/21, so a total of 7 has probability (1*6 + 2*5 + 3*4 + 4*3 + 5*2 + 6*1)/21^2 = 56/441.
Solution
The six probabilities are proportional to , which add to , so face comes up with probability on each die.
A total of arises from the ordered outcomes . The dice are independent, so the outcome has probability . Adding the six:
Since and , this reduces to .
The answer is .
Why this works
A ratio of probabilities becomes actual probabilities once you divide by the ratio total, because the probabilities must sum to . After that the problem is an ordinary "sum of two dice" count, except each ordered outcome carries its own weight. The mirror symmetry halves the work: compute three products and double.
The trap
Counting each unordered pair once (3 terms, 28/441 = 4/63) instead of the six ordered outcomes on two distinct dice.
Common mistakes
- Counting each unordered pair once (3 terms, 28/441 = 4/63) instead of the six ordered outcomes on two distinct dice.
- Using for each face out of habit, which gives the fair-dice answer , choice (D).
Techniques
Set up the equation/formula and compute; no special trick needed · Exploit symmetry to reduce work or pair up objects