An envelope contains eight bills: ones, fives, tens, and twenties. Two bills are drawn at random without replacement. What is the probability that their sum is or more?
- A)
- B)
- C)
- D)
- E)
Answer
D
Key insight
Only two kinds of pairs reach 20 dollars: any pair with a twenty, or the two tens. That is 14 of the 28 possible pairs.
Solution
1. All possible pairs. Choosing of the bills can be done in ways, all equally likely. (Divide by because picking bill X then bill Y is the same pair as Y then X.)
2. Which pairs reach ? Without a twenty, the biggest sums are and . So a pair works only if it has a twenty, or if it is the two tens.
3. Pairs with a twenty.
- One twenty and one of the other bills: pairs.
- Both twenties: pair.
4. The two tens: pair.
5. Total good pairs: . The probability is .
The answer is .
Why this works
Start by asking which combinations can even reach the target; here that leaves a very short list. Then count each type separately and make sure no pair is in two types. Checking the "just barely" case ( exactly) is what catches the trap.
Alternative approach
Count the bad pairs instead. A bad pair has no twenty, so both bills come from the ones, fives and tens: pairs. But one of those, the two tens, actually reaches , so only pairs are bad. Good pairs: , and .
The trap
Forgetting the pair of two tens (getting 13/28), or counting the pair of two twenties twice.
Concise solution
There are equally likely pairs of bills.
The largest sum without a twenty and without two tens is , so a sum of or more requires either at least one twenty, or both tens.
- At least one twenty: pairs drawn entirely from the six non-twenty bills number , so pairs include a twenty.
- No twenty but both tens: exactly pair.
These cases do not overlap, so there are favorable pairs, and the probability is .
The answer is .
Review in the AoPS books
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 7: Introduction to Probability
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 1: Counting Is Arithmetic
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 2: Basic Counting Techniques (§2.3)
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 8: Basic Probability Techniques
Techniques
Split into exhaustive cases and handle each · Count the complement and subtract from the total