Three tiles are marked and two other tiles are marked . The five tiles are randomly arranged in a row. What is the probability that the arrangement reads ?
- A)
- B)
- C)
- D)
- E)
Answer
B
Key insight
Only the spots of the two O tiles matter. There are 10 ways to pick 2 spots out of 5, and XOXOX is exactly one of them.
Solution
The X tiles all look the same and the O tiles all look the same. So a row is decided completely by where the two O's go. The X's fill the other three spots.
1. Count all possible rows. Choose of the spots for the O's. List them by the first O's spot:
- first O in spot 1: second in 2, 3, 4 or 5, giving ways;
- first O in spot 2: second in 3, 4 or 5, giving ways;
- first O in spot 3: ways;
- first O in spot 4: way.
Total: rows. (This is .)
2. Are they equally likely? Yes. The tiles are placed at random, so no pattern is favored.
3. Count the good rows. has O's in spots 2 and 4. That is exactly of the .
So the probability is .
The answer is .
Why this works
When some objects are identical, count the different-looking rows, not every shuffle of the tiles. Picking the spots for the smaller group (the two O's) is the quickest way. If you prefer to treat all five tiles as different, that also works, as long as you count the same way on the top and the bottom of the fraction: is still .
Alternative approach
Place the tiles one at a time, left to right.
- First tile is X: of tiles are X, so .
- Second is O: of the left are O, so .
- Third is X: of the left are X, so .
- Fourth is O: of the left is O, so .
- The last tile must be X.
Multiply: .
The trap
Counting 5 factorial = 120 orders on the bottom but only 1 on the top, forgetting that swapping identical tiles gives the same row.
Concise solution
A row of five tiles is determined by which two of the five positions hold the 's; the remaining three positions automatically get 's. Every choice of positions is equally likely, and there are
of them.
The pattern corresponds to exactly one choice: 's in positions and . So the probability is .
The answer is .
Review in the AoPS books
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 7: Introduction to Probability
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 1: Counting Is Arithmetic
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 8: Basic Probability Techniques
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 2: Basic Counting Techniques
Techniques
Set up the equation/formula and compute; no special trick needed