Three tiles are marked and two other tiles are marked . The five tiles are randomly arranged in a row. What is the probability that the arrangement reads ?
- A)
- B)
- C)
- D)
- E)
Answer
B
Key insight
Only the positions of the two O's matter: C(5,2) = 10 equally likely patterns, and exactly one of them is XOXOX.
Solution
A row of five tiles is determined by which two of the five positions hold the 's; the remaining three positions automatically get 's. Every choice of positions is equally likely, and there are
of them.
The pattern corresponds to exactly one choice: 's in positions and . So the probability is .
The answer is .
Why this works
Identical tiles collapse the sample space from orderings to distinguishable patterns, each equally likely by symmetry. Alternatively, if you treat the tiles as distinct, both numerator and denominator get multiplied by , and the ratio is the same. Either bookkeeping works as long as it is consistent.
Alternative approach
Sequential probability: the first tile is with probability , then with , then with , then with , then with certainty. Product: .
The trap
Using 5! = 120 or 2^5 = 32 as the total, or thinking XOXOX can be produced in more than one way.
Common mistakes
- Using 5! = 120 or 2^5 = 32 as the total, or thinking XOXOX can be produced in more than one way.
- Counting the distinct-tile favorable cases () but dividing by the multiset total (), mixing the two conventions.
Techniques
Set up the equation/formula and compute; no special trick needed