Coin is flipped three times and coin is flipped four times. What is the probability that the number of heads obtained from flipping the two fair coins is the same?
- A)
- B)
- C)
- D)
- E)
Answer
D
Key insight
Go through each possible number of heads, 0 to 3. Multiply the ways coin A and coin B can each get that many, then add: 35 out of 128.
Solution
- All outcomes. Coin has possible sequences and coin has . Together there are equally likely outcomes.
- Good outcomes. Coin can only show , , or heads, so the common number of heads must be one of these. Handle each number separately.
- For a given number of heads , coin can get it in ways and coin in ways. Every way for can go with every way for , so multiply.
| heads | ways for | ways for | ways for both |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 1 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
- Add the last column: .
- The probability is .
The answer is .
Why this works
To find the chance that two separate counts come out equal, go through each possible common value. For each one, multiply the number of ways each side can reach it, then add up. Counting outcomes out of keeps everything in whole numbers until the last step.
Alternative approach
A slicker count. Coin 's heads equal coin 's heads exactly when (heads of ) plus (tails of ) equals , because 's heads and tails add to . Think of all flips in a row and mark a flip if it is a head of or a tail of . The good outcomes are the ones with exactly marked flips, and there are of those.
The trap
Adding the ways for the two coins instead of multiplying them, or forgetting that the total number of outcomes is 8 times 16 = 128.
Concise solution
All combined flip sequences are equally likely, so count the sequences in which both coins show the same number of heads . Coin shows heads in ways and coin in ways, and the choices are independent.
| product | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 1 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
The favorable count is , so the probability is .
The answer is .
Review in the AoPS books
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 7: Introduction to Probability
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 1: Counting Is Arithmetic
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 2: Basic Counting Techniques (§2.2)
- Introduction to Counting & Probability, Chapter 8: Basic Probability Techniques
Techniques
Split into exhaustive cases and handle each